RICS Housing Market Survey September 2011, What Does It Mean for Property Scotland, Are Property and House Prices Rising or Falling?

RICS Housing Market Survey September 2011, What Does It Mean for Property Scotland, Are Property and House Prices Rising or Falling?

The latest House Price Survey from the Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) has just come out. What is it saying about the property market in Scotland?

I’ll start with the usual disclaimer.. Part of the survey is based on statistics from estate agency firms that are also members of RICS and there aren’t a lot of them in most parts of Scotland. The rest is based on opinions of surveyors: their feelings as to whether property prices are rising or falling.

The RICS survey this month actually has fairly positive news in it from a Scottish perspective. Well, in the current economic climate you have to try quite hard to find anything positive, so it’s perhaps fair to say that the news ISN’T very negative. But that’s not bad at the moment!

The headline net price balance for the whole of the UK is unchanged at -23. This means that 23% more surveyors recorded prices falling rather than rising over the last three months. Of those, three quarters of the respondents that did report a fall in prices did said that any fall in the past 3 months has been in the 0-2% range.

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In Scotland, this figure was only -11. In other words, 11% more surveyors thought that property prices were falling than thought they were rising. That’s an improvement on last month. The majority in fact thought that prices were just about the same.

What does this MEAN for property owners, buyers or potential sellers? Well, it means that property prices are remaining stable in the opinion of chartered surveyors. Since the opinion of chartered surveyors is what sets the Home Report valuation, and since asking prices are generally based around the Home Report valuation, this means that asking prices in Scotland are more than likely to remain quite stable.

This isn’t great news for anyone hoping for property prices to start rising.  However, the likelihood of property prices rising in the near future is pretty small given the general economic climate and level of uncertainty when it comes to bail-outs for European banks and countries in the Eurozone.  So, to be honest, in an economic climate where small mercies are about the best we can hope for, I’m rather thankful for this one!

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I'm Robert Carroll, Managing Director of MOV8 Real Estate, Estate Agents and Solicitors. MOV8 is an innovative and forward-thinking estate agency and solicitor firm with its Head Office in Edinburgh, UK. It is one of the fastest growing firms in the east of Scotland. I see first-hand every day what is actually happening in the property market and am regularly quoted in the Scottish Press in property stories. Through this blog I aim to give an honest, fresh and sometimes light hearted take on what is happening in the Scottish property market for anyone who is interested in that kind of thing...

1 Comment

  1. Dan Cookson 8 years ago

    Your disclaimer is noted but from a statistical point of view the RICS survey says absolutely nothing about the property market in Scotland.

    The fact that ‘11% more surveyors thought that property prices were falling than thought they were rising’ is meaningless at a number of levels. Firstly, each contributing surveyor is commenting on their specific local area so you can not aggregate these local sentiments to derive a national picture. Secondly and even more significantly a total of just 13 surveyors contributed to this survey in Scotland so ‘11% more’ equates to 1.43 surveyor. Thirdly, a quick look at the locations of these 13 contributing surveyors shows they are predominantly rural – there is for example no representation from Glasgow but 3 surveyors from the Borders and one from Orkney are included. Clearly not a meaningful representation of Scottish housing market. I’m still astounded RICS publish this stuff.

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